580
FXUS64 KTSA 231748
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF HIGH HEAT
STRESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEK. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING
AROUND ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
- LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- AREAS OF LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OCCURS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
NOTABLE MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING WESTERN KS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD INCREASING FORCING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NE OK THROUGH
WESTERN AR FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NO OBVIOUS REASON TO
DISAGREE AND THE FORECAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALIGN ACCORDINGLY.
FORECAST PROFILES MAINTAIN A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AND STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FAVORING LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIP WILL INFLUENCE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS MONDAY WITH A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. BLENDED
GUIDANCE FAVORS A MINOR COOL DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH VERY LOW
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY COOL DOWN WILL LIKELY BE
BRIEF WITH HOT TEMPERATURES EXPANDING AREA WIDE BY LATE WEEK.
OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOW BEYOND MONDAY AND THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL DRIVE LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN ANY REDUCED
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO ERN OK AND NWRN AR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS AFTER 06Z NERN OK AND NWRN AR
SITES, AND CONTINUED PROB30 GROUPS NWRN AR SITES AFTER 12Z, AS
CONVECTION WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR THAT AREA. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GENERALLY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 99 74 99 / 30 20 0 10
FSM 76 99 74 104 / 30 30 0 0
MLC 79 104 77 106 / 10 20 20 0
BVO 69 96 70 97 / 40 20 0 0
FYV 71 92 70 99 / 60 40 10 0
BYV 68 90 69 95 / 70 70 10 0
MKO 75 99 73 101 / 30 20 0 0
MIO 69 93 71 96 / 70 30 10 0
F10 76 102 74 102 / 20 20 0 10
HHW 77 103 76 104 / 0 20 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-060-061-
064>067-070-071-073>075-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...69
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