898
FXUS64 KTSA 232340
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF HIGH HEAT
STRESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEK. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING
AROUND ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
- LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- AREAS OF LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OCCURS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
NOTABLE MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING WESTERN KS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD INCREASING FORCING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NE OK THROUGH
WESTERN AR FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NO OBVIOUS REASON TO
DISAGREE AND THE FORECAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALIGN ACCORDINGLY.
FORECAST PROFILES MAINTAIN A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AND STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FAVORING LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIP WILL INFLUENCE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS MONDAY WITH A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. BLENDED
GUIDANCE FAVORS A MINOR COOL DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH VERY LOW
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY COOL DOWN WILL LIKELY BE
BRIEF WITH HOT TEMPERATURES EXPANDING AREA WIDE BY LATE WEEK.
OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOW BEYOND MONDAY AND THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL DRIVE LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH FEW TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. GREATER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE EARLY
TO LATE MORNING MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE PROB30 GROUPS FOR TIMING
FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE, WILL
CARRY VCSH JUST OUTSIDE OF THE PROB30 GROUPS. GUSTY TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP WITHIN THE CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION BETWEEN
EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 99 74 99 / 30 20 0 10
FSM 76 99 74 104 / 30 30 0 0
MLC 79 104 77 106 / 10 20 20 0
BVO 69 96 70 97 / 40 20 0 0
FYV 71 92 70 99 / 60 40 10 0
BYV 68 90 69 95 / 70 70 10 0
MKO 75 99 73 101 / 30 20 0 0
MIO 69 93 71 96 / 70 30 10 0
F10 76 102 74 102 / 20 20 0 10
HHW 77 103 76 104 / 0 20 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-060-061-
064>067-070-071-073>075-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
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