362
FXUS64 KTSA 080451
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1147 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
- HEADLINE-WORTHY HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE WORSENING DROUGHT.
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK
AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY, WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WHERE THEY WERE
ON MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST BETWEEN
100 AND 105 FOR MOST OF THE CWA, WITH HEAT INDICES WARRANTING HEAT
HEADLINES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED TO AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY IN W-CENTRAL AR
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NE OK. THESE AREAS EXPERIENCED MAX HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR GREATER THAN 110 ON MONDAY, AND ARE LIKELY TO
ACHIEVE THIS AGAIN TUESDAY. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ALONE MAY EXCEED
105 DEGREES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF W ARKANSAS, BARRING ANY
IMPACT FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE YET
AGAIN, BUT WITH THE RIDGE CENTER OVERHEAD, COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
BE LESS THAN MONDAY. CAMS SUGGEST SE OK AND NW AR WILL AGAIN BE
MOST FAVORED AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP, BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR AS WELL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST FEW DAYS, CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY DRY AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
THE RIDGE WILL TEND TO FLATTEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY AND APPROACH OUR CWA SOMETIME LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER HOT
DAY IS LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW
AR. HOWEVER, HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF I-40 OR FURTHER INTO SE OK/W AR. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING RAIN
POTENTIAL, THE FRONT WILL ALSO HELP COOL THE AREA OFF. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
NORTH OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. ANY AREAS THAT REMAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER (MID-UPPER 90S). A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MAY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE OK AND W AR.
MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS
SOME AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AT LEAST APPROACH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY HINGE ON
JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT THE NBM CURRENTLY
PROVIDES FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 20-40 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS COULD RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER, POTENTIALLY STRONGER, COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE
REGION. MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE COMING DAYS,
BUT THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THAT A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS
TO BE SHAPING UP FOR THE AREA BEGINNING MID TO LATE THIS WEEK AND
PERSISTING INTO THE NEXT. INCREASING RAIN AND FRONT ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OR LOWER FRIDAY AND
BEYOND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF KFSM WILL LINGER FOR FIRST HOUR OF TAF
PERIOD BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
10KT THOUGH SOME INITIAL ERRATIC GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR KFSM
FOR THE FIRST HOUR. MID-LEVEL RIDGE INTENSIFIES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY WITH ANY BRIEF IMPACTS AT AR TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS INCLUDE PROB30S AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AT ANY
ONE LOCATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 103 81 102 / 10 10 0 10
FSM 75 105 77 104 / 10 20 10 20
MLC 77 103 77 102 / 10 20 10 10
BVO 74 103 75 103 / 0 10 0 20
FYV 71 101 74 101 / 10 20 10 20
BYV 70 99 75 99 / 0 20 10 30
MKO 75 102 76 100 / 10 20 10 10
MIO 75 101 77 100 / 0 10 0 30
F10 76 102 77 101 / 10 20 0 10
HHW 76 99 75 98 / 10 20 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>059-063>065-068-069-073-075-154-172-254-276-354-376.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
OKZ060>062-066-067-070-071-074-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-119-120-229.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ129-
219-220.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...24
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