555
FXUS64 KTSA 090421
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1121 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR.
- PERIODIC RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS INFLUENCE THE REGION.
- LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO THE
WORSENING DROUGHT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S. CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY, AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE C PLAINS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOWER 100S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 105 AND 112 DEGREES.
THE HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING (EFFECTIVE NOON TO 7
PM) WERE MAINTAINED WITH NO CHANGES TO THE CONFIGURATION AT THIS
TIME. BY LATE AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP,
WITH INCREASING CONVECTION LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-44, WITH AT LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS
SOUNDING PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR, THOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LOW DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING OVER MUCH OF E OK AND NW AR. THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL
TEND TO STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, THOUGH OUTFLOW FROM
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXTEND WELL INTO SE OK. THIS WILL COMPLICATE THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST, WITH ANY AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDISTURBED
LIKELY STILL ACHIEVING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES. BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...LIKELY STRUGGLING TO WARM OUT OF THE 80S. THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FAVORS LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR, WITH HIGHS
STILL IN THE MID-UPPER 90S. IF THIS VERIFIES, ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED. WITH THAT SAID, SEVERAL CAMS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW/COOLER TEMPERATURES TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
CWA, AND THIS EVOLUTION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CLUSTERING THAT OCCURS, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LESS LIKELY AS OF NOW DUE TO POOR WIND SHEAR.
THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROLONG LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SE OK AND NW AR BEING MOST FAVORED FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS (20-50 PERCENT CHANCE). OTHERWISE, DRIER
WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH LESSENING CLOUD COVER. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S POSSIBLE AGAIN.
MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. YET ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT NEAR OR INTO THE CWA WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN
BY FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVERAGE.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCES OF UP TO 15-20 DEGREES NOTED BETWEEN THE
NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
LEANS MORE TOWARDS STATUS QUO, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PERSISTING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BETTER THAN OUR LATEST STREAK OF 100+
WEATHER...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID
SEPTEMBER. IF THE FRONTS CAN MAKE MORE MEANINGFUL INTRUSIONS INTO
OUR AREA, COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW
EXCEPT FOR FSM. A VERY LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS PRIOR TO
10/00Z EXISTS MAINLY AT BVO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN IMPACTS HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER 10/00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 103 74 87 / 0 10 60 80
FSM 77 104 77 95 / 0 10 10 50
MLC 78 102 77 95 / 0 0 10 60
BVO 76 103 67 85 / 0 20 90 90
FYV 76 102 73 90 / 0 10 10 50
BYV 76 100 74 88 / 0 10 10 60
MKO 76 101 74 90 / 0 0 20 50
MIO 77 101 71 84 / 0 20 80 90
F10 77 102 74 89 / 0 0 20 70
HHW 75 99 75 96 / 0 0 0 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>059-063>065-068-069-073-075-154-172-254-276-354-376.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
OKZ060>062-066-067-070-071-074-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-119-120-229.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ129-
219-220.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22
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