766
FXUS64 KTSA 091747
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1247 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING COLD FRONT.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN IN WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE.
- OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE
WIDESPREAD ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MARK THE PEAK OF THE RECENT EXCESSIVE HEAT
STRETCH. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL MOVE SOUTH
AND BECOME REINFORCED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL
POSE A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WELCOME COOL DOWN
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. STORMS WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE FOCUSED ON THE ACTUAL SFC BOUNDARY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY
EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST BASED ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS UNCERTAIN AS THE
REGION TRANSITIONS FROM THE POST FRONTAL REGIME TO THE PREVAILING
WARM SECTOR BY SUNDAY. VARIOUS GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST STORM
COVERAGE EXPANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE SPREADING EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. A
LULL IN STORM POTENTIAL IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE A POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS AND PROPAGATES ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD
INTO NE OK OR NW AR SATURDAY. TIMING AND DETAILS OF STORM
POTENTIAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.
THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE PERSISTENT
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN OR NEAR THE LOCAL REGION. A POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY OFFER ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT NO OBVIOUS AIRMASS CHANGE IS CURRENTLY SEE AND
EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
TO PERSIST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT MOST SITES,
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME CAVEATS DURING THIS FORECAST. A FRONT WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR STORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WHICH COULD AFFECT THE NE OK AND FAR NW AR TAF SITES. A MIX OF
PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS WERE USED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE IS HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE AT KBVO TO WARRANT AN MVFR
CIG MENTION THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS, STORMS COULD BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 86 68 91 / 50 80 30 20
FSM 77 94 73 93 / 10 60 50 50
MLC 77 93 71 95 / 0 80 50 50
BVO 67 85 62 90 / 80 90 20 20
FYV 73 89 65 91 / 0 60 50 40
BYV 74 87 68 88 / 10 60 50 40
MKO 75 89 67 91 / 10 70 50 40
MIO 71 83 66 89 / 80 90 30 20
F10 75 88 67 93 / 20 80 50 40
HHW 75 97 73 94 / 0 40 40 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-055>059-
063>065-068-069-073-075-154-172-254-276-354-376.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ060>062-
066-067-070-071-074-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
119-120-229.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-
220.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30
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