326
FXUS64 KTSA 101740
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1240 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN IN WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE.
- OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE
WIDESPREAD ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND WORSENING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
A BAND OF RAIN AND STORMS EXISTS BEHIND AN ADVANCING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY, WHICH IS ANALYZED FROM NW AR TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WAS LOCATED FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BACK TO KS. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WV IMAGERY ADVANCING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. CAMS SUGGEST A GENERAL SOUTH AND EAST ADVANCEMENT AND
DECREASING COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY, AND THEN SOME AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. FOR POPS
THROUGH 00Z, LEANED MORE ON THE RAW 1 HOUR NBM POPS WHICH WERE
MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH COVERAGE OF THE HIGH POPS, WHICH SEEMS MORE
PRUDENT IN THIS SITUATION. IN GENERAL, INCREASING THUNDER PROBS
ABOVE THE MODEL BLEND AND SHOWED A GENERAL SOUTH AND EASTWARD
SHIFT TO THE THUNDER COVERAGE. LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH SOME POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FOR HIGH TEMPS, THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN WILL HOLD VALUES DOWN TODAY, SOME RELIEF FROM THE
EXTENDED SUMMER HEAT OF LATE.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS ARE TWO-FOLD,
STARTING WITH HOW MUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO, WHETHER
ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HANG AROUND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA YET ANOTHER DAY.
LATE THIS EVENING, EVIDENCE OF THE OUTFLOW FROM THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING STORMS THAT OCCURRED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA REMAINS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA, STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED IN BETWEEN THE
TWO BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH OF THE KANSAS STATE LINE IN RESPONSE
TO A MODEST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
EXPECT A CONTINUED EXPANSION IN THE COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD
PUSH AS THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND
BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS GIVEN SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. TOWARD MIDDAY, A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR, WITH ANOTHER UPTICK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON, LIKELY FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE MORNING ACTIVITY. THE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL POSE
ANOTHER LIMITED RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
FEATURING HEAT INDEX VALUES THAT ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR A SMALL
PART OF AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL LIKELY, HOWEVER. WILL PASS ALONG CONCERNS TO LATER SHIFTS
BUT WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A ROUND
OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS
OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS DUE TO ANOTHER
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET ORIENTED TOWARD
THOSE AREAS. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES PERSISTING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST, WITH A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER FRIDAY THAN WHAT THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED
OF LATE, ALTHOUGH STILL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
HIGHS.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK OVER
THE REGION, ALTHOUGH BEFORE IT DOES, THERE MAY BE ONE LAST ROUND
OF MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO A
CENTRAL PLAINS MID LEVEL WAVE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL, WITH LONGER LASTING
RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO LEAD TO LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES BOTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK MAY BRING ANOTHER COOLDOWN AND RAINFALL, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT
AND EVEN HOW FAR INTO THE AREA IT MAY MOVE ARE UNCERTAIN BUT IT
BRINGS SOME GLIMMER OF HOPE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
A MORE COMPLEX TAF FORECAST TODAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WHAT SEEMS
LIKE MONTHS. AN AGGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, FORCING SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. IN THE NEAR TERM, USED A COMBO OF PREVAILING,
TEMPO AND PROB30S TO ADDRESS STORM IMPACTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM SE OK INTO
NW AR AND WILL ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL WITH PREVAILING AND PROB30
GROUPS. FINALLY, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ACROSS NE OK TONIGHT
AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR OR BLO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT KBVO. FARTHER SOUTH AT KTUL/KRVS, GUIDANCE IS
LEANING MORE TOWARD MVFR LOW CLOUD THAN FOG. FOR KMLC AND THE NW
AR SITES, ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR OR EVEN IFR LOW CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 86 68 91 71 / 90 20 10 30
FSM 94 73 92 72 / 60 70 60 20
MLC 93 70 93 72 / 50 60 50 10
BVO 83 62 90 65 / 90 20 10 30
FYV 88 65 89 65 / 70 70 50 20
BYV 86 68 87 68 / 60 70 50 20
MKO 89 67 90 68 / 60 40 30 20
MIO 82 66 89 68 / 90 20 10 20
F10 87 67 92 69 / 80 30 30 20
HHW 96 72 92 72 / 30 50 50 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page