117
FNUS74 KTSA 102055
FWSTSA
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILDFIRE INCIDENT SPOT FORECAST FOR FIRES NEAR...DOI
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT NWS TULSA AT (918)838-7838, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE
BURN AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW TO MEDIUM (30 TO 40
PERCENT) THAT THE MCALESTER AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS START NEARLY CALM FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME. SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE FIFTY PERCENT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY,
THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST DEVELOP INTO A STRONG COMPLEX OF STORMS
AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING.
ASSUMING THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES, BEHIND THE COMPLEX, ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME SATURDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE ON BOTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HIGH
HUMIDITY VALUES, CLOUD COVER, RECENT RAINS AND FORECAST RAIN
CHANCES, THE OVERALL FIRE SPREAD RATES SHOULD BE LOW.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 8 TO
10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (19016 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (49180 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINT............72.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........81 83 78 64 45 49 41 37 26 26 16
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............71 72 75 78 81 84 88 90 91 92 92
DEWPOINT........71 72 72 73 72 72 72 72 72 72 72
RH..............100 98 91 84 74 67 60 56 53 52 53
20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 5 4
20 FT WIND GUST.4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 7
EYE LVL WND DIR.E SE SE SE S S S S S S S
EYE LVL WND SPD.2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 5 4
EYE LVL WND GST.4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.1 3.9 3.9 4.1 2.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S S S S SW SW SW SW SW S
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..26 26 26 26 26 26 49 49 49 49 49
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (49180 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (3934 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
DEWPOINT............72.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........12 9 4 25 39 19 14 26 44 26 25 30
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............91 88 85 82 80 78 77 77 76 76 75 74
DEWPOINT........72 73 72 72 72 72 72 72 71 71 71 71
RH..............54 60 65 72 77 81 83 84 85 86 88 89
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SE S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
20 FT WIND GUST.7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 10
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S SE S S S S S S S S
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
EYE LVL WND GST.7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..49 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5
VENTRATE CAT....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 98.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3934 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (59016 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINT............72.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........30 16 29 34 39 33 27 21 24 28 31 25
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............74 73 75 79 83 87 91 93 95 97 97 97
DEWPOINT........71 71 71 72 73 73 73 73 72 71 71 71
RH..............88 92 87 79 71 62 57 53 47 44 43 44
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4
20 FT WIND GUST.10 8 8 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 7
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4
EYE LVL WND GST.10 8 8 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.3 3.0 3.6 4.7 5.3 5.3 4.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 12 13 13 13 12 10 10 10 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 40 40 40 40 40 40 59 59 59 59 59
VENTRATE CAT....PR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR
FORECASTER...B.MEJIA
REQUESTED BY...TRAVIS CLAPP
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2621603.0/TSA
.DELDT 09/10/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL TRAVIS_CLAPP@IOS.DOI.GOV
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