735
FNUS74 KTSA 102108
FWSTSA
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILDFIRE INCIDENT SPOT FORECAST FOR CHEROKEE...DOI
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT NWS TULSA AT (918)838-7838, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE AREA. WINDS STAY
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE FIFTY PERCENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY, THESE
STORMS ARE FORECAST DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AND MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY MORNING. ASSUMING
THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES, BEHIND THE COMPLEX, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE ON BOTH ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES, CLOUD
COVER, RECENT RAINS AND FORECAST RAIN CHANCES, THE OVERALL FIRE
SPREAD RATES SHOULD BE LOW.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............69.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (21639 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (36065 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
STABILITY CLASS.....4.
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).81 INCREASING TO 88 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING.
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........57 45 36 43 31 50 34 48 55 29 27
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............68 70 73 78 81 84 86 88 88 88 88
DEWPOINT........68 69 70 71 70 70 70 69 69 69 69
RH..............100 100 90 80 69 63 59 55 54 53 54
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW S
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 4
20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW S
EYE LVL WND SPD.2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 4
EYE LVL WND GST.4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.0 3.7 3.5 3.7 4.1 3.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S S S SW SW S SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..24 24 24 24 24 24 36 36 36 36 36
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
1700FT MIX T(F).77 77 78 80 81 83 85 86 88 89 89
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............70.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND
5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER 3 AM. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (36065 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (3934 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
STABILITY CLASS.....4.
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).88.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........17 6 6 7 31 21 15 14 8 15 20 23
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH
TEMP............87 85 82 78 76 75 74 73 73 72 71 71
DEWPOINT........69 70 70 70 70 71 71 71 71 71 71 70
RH..............55 61 68 78 83 87 91 93 93 97 100 99
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SE SE SE S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S SE SE SE S S S S S S S
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4
EYE LVL WND GST.6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 7 7 7 8 10 10 12 10 9 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..36 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
1700FT MIX T(F).89 89 88 88 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 88
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............70.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3934 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (57049 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
STABILITY CLASS.....4.
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).92.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING
LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........22 28 27 29 32 29 27 25 27 29 31 26
WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............71 69 72 77 81 85 88 90 92 93 93 92
DEWPOINT........70 69 70 71 72 72 72 72 71 70 70 70
RH..............99 100 95 83 73 64 58 56 51 47 47 48
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..4 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S SW SW SW S S S
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3
EYE LVL WND GST.7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.2 5.2 6.0 6.3 5.8 4.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 44 44 44 44 44 44 57 57 57 57 57
VENTRATE CAT....PR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR
1700FT MIX T(F).88 88 88 88 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97
FORECASTER...B.MEJIA
REQUESTED BY...TRAVIS CLAPP
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2621605.0/TSA
.DELDT 09/10/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL TRAVIS_CLAPP@IOS.DOI.GOV
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