844
FXUS64 KTSA 111727
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN EXACT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AT
TIMES.
- WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS RECEIVED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS, THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE MUCH MORE
RAINFALL FOR IMPROVEMENT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN COVERAGE AND
LOCATION OF THE BEST STORM CHANCES. THUS HAVE STUCK WITH THE NBM
DEPICTION OF THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
MORNING, WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST WHILE DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN THE NBM LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FIRST GUESS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
MAY REACH NEAR 105 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS STORMS THAT FIRE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH MAY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE STORM
IMPACTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK MORE STRONGLY OVER THE AREA
ENDING MOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AND
HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME LOCATIONS EACH DAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
MVFR CIGS OVER NW AR SITES SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 19Z, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AREAWIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND NOT IMPACTFUL. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, WILL LEAN WITH THE CAMS AND KEEP MENTION OUT.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 73 95 73 98 / 0 30 30 10
FSM 73 99 74 100 / 0 20 20 10
MLC 74 99 74 100 / 0 20 20 10
BVO 65 94 68 97 / 0 40 30 20
FYV 66 95 68 97 / 0 30 20 20
BYV 68 93 69 95 / 0 30 20 30
MKO 70 97 70 99 / 0 30 20 10
MIO 67 92 69 95 / 0 30 30 20
F10 71 98 71 99 / 0 30 20 10
HHW 74 100 73 100 / 10 10 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page