358
FXUS64 KTSA 121754
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HEAT HEADLINES AT TIMES.
- WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS RECEIVED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS, THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE MUCH MORE
RAINFALL FOR IMPROVEMENT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THE REST OF THE ONGOING OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE ON THE QUIETER
SIDE, WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS HAVING DIMINISHED WITH
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST
AREAS, WITH AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AND IN FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DIPPING INTO THE 60S.
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION, WITH
CONCERNS REVOLVING AROUND HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OCCURS
TOMORROW AND HOW FAR SOUTH. MOST OF THE CAMS AND SOME OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE LARGELY IN AGREEMENT THAT A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. IF THIS OCCURS AS
EXPECTED, THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INTO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40. THIS IS THE IDEA THAT
WILL BE FEATURED IN THIS EVENING/S FORECAST. WITH THESE
EXPECTATIONS, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 SHOULD BE HOT ONCE
AGAIN, WITH POTENTIAL FOR PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA SATURDAY, GIVEN THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THERE. IF THE STORM COVERAGE IS NOT AS GREAT, THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD BY LATER SHIFTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SOMEWHAT HIGHER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD, WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS
ADVERTISED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS BORDER. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH HOT AND DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING THEREAFTER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL FUEL INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, WITH THE RECENT RAINS
NOT BEING NEARLY ENOUGH TO SQUELCH THE IMPACT OF THE ONGOING
DROUGHT. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE
ADVERTISED IN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS, BUT THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION. IF/WHEN IT DOES COME THROUGH, AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY IT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MORNING CONVECTION HAS NEARLY PASSED NE OK TERMINALS LEAVING SOME
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL BROKEN MID CLOUDS FROM KTUL
TO KFSM THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW IS SLOWING FROM TULSA TO NEAR
FAYETTEVILLE AND IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT WITH WINDS RETURNING TO
THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR REMAINING VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A LOW RISK OF ADDITIONAL
STORMS IMPACTING NORTHWEST AR SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH WESTERN END OF BOUNDARY NEAR KTUL/KRVS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ADDITIONAL, MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS TOWARD 00Z SUN
AND SPREAD EAST MAINLY IMPACTING NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 101 78 100 / 20 0 10 0
FSM 75 103 76 102 / 10 10 10 0
MLC 75 102 77 101 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 70 100 71 100 / 40 10 10 0
FYV 69 98 70 98 / 20 20 10 0
BYV 71 96 72 96 / 20 30 10 10
MKO 72 102 74 101 / 10 0 10 0
MIO 70 97 73 99 / 40 10 10 0
F10 72 102 75 100 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 74 101 75 101 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-065-066-
070-071-073>075-176-272.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-
276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220-
229.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...24
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