975
FXUS64 KTSA 121809
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
109 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HEAT HEADLINES AT TIMES.
- WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS RECEIVED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS, THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE MUCH MORE
RAINFALL FOR IMPROVEMENT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE STORMS DISSIPATE.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARDS A POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX THAT
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THIS COMPLEX FORMS, IT
WILL LIKELY TRACK EAST INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST
WITH THIS COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE ENDING. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST. DANGEROUS
HEAT WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH DAILY HEAT HEADLINES EXPECTED. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN MAY TAKE PLACE BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MORNING CONVECTION HAS NEARLY PASSED NE OK TERMINALS LEAVING SOME
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL BROKEN MID CLOUDS FROM KTUL
TO KFSM THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW IS SLOWING FROM TULSA TO NEAR
FAYETTEVILLE AND IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT WITH WINDS RETURNING TO
THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR REMAINING VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A LOW RISK OF ADDITIONAL
STORMS IMPACTING NORTHWEST AR SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH WESTERN END OF BOUNDARY NEAR KTUL/KRVS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ADDITIONAL, MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS TOWARD 00Z SUN
AND SPREAD EAST MAINLY IMPACTING NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 101 78 100 / 20 0 10 0
FSM 75 103 76 102 / 10 10 10 0
MLC 75 102 77 101 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 70 100 71 100 / 40 10 10 0
FYV 69 98 70 98 / 20 20 10 0
BYV 71 96 72 96 / 20 30 10 10
MKO 72 102 74 101 / 10 0 10 0
MIO 70 97 73 99 / 40 10 10 0
F10 72 102 75 100 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 74 101 75 101 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-065-066-
070-071-073>075-176-272.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-
276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220-
229.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24
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