775
FXUS64 KTSA 122340
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 633 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HEAT HEADLINES AT TIMES.
- WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS RECEIVED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS, THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE MUCH MORE
RAINFALL FOR IMPROVEMENT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE STORMS DISSIPATE.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARDS A POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX THAT
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THIS COMPLEX FORMS, IT
WILL LIKELY TRACK EAST INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST
WITH THIS COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE ENDING. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST. DANGEROUS
HEAT WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH DAILY HEAT HEADLINES EXPECTED. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN MAY TAKE PLACE BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS OVER FAR NW
OK COULD CLUSTER AND COME EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK OVERNIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO FAR NW AR TOWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT SUPER HIGH, BUT BOTH CAM MODELS SHOW SOME STORM ACTIVITY
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30S FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND JUST ADJUSTED THE TIME WINDOW BACK A FEW
HOURS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. DID INSERT SOME
WIND GUST POTENTIAL PER HRRR.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 101 78 100 / 20 0 10 0
FSM 75 103 76 102 / 10 10 10 0
MLC 75 102 77 101 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 70 100 71 100 / 40 10 10 0
FYV 69 98 70 98 / 20 20 10 0
BYV 71 96 72 96 / 20 30 10 10
MKO 72 102 74 101 / 10 0 10 0
MIO 70 97 73 99 / 40 10 10 0
F10 72 102 75 100 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 74 101 75 101 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-065-066-
070-071-073>075-176-272.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-
276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220-
229.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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