231
FXUS64 KTSA 130447
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HEAT HEADLINES ON MULTIPLE DAYS.
- WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS RECEIVED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS, THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE MUCH MORE
RAINFALL FOR IMPROVEMENT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS OSAGE/PAWNEE
COUNTIES AT PRESENT AND WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS DESPITE BEING LARGELY ELEVATED. ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND DIVE SOUTH AS WELL. THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS OVERNIGHT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THE
CLUSTER MOVING INTO NE OK APPEARS AIDED BY REAR INFLOW JET AND
THUS EXPECT CONTINUED ORGANIZATION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH
A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK, POTENTIALLY
MOVING INTO PART OF NORTHWEST AR BEFORE WEAKENING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY, BUT THE
OVERALL EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR DECREASING CLOD COVER AND HOT
TEMPERATUES EXPANDING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS EASTERN OK. MUCH OF
THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HI VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105, AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE. SOME DATA SUGGESTS AT LEAST A FEW
SPOTS WILL FLIRT WITH 110 FOR A HI.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY IN THE COMING DAYS AS SUMMER
RAGES ON. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO
RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO SOME DEGREE IN AREAS THAT MISS OUT
ON THE CURRENT RAINFALL. CONFIGURATION OF HEADLINES MAY VARY SOME,
BUT BOTTOM LINE IS ANOTHER MULTIPLE DAY STRETCH OF HEAT IS COMING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
WEEK BUT MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BY ABOUT NEXT
WEEKEND, THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS OVER FAR NW
OK COULD CLUSTER AND COME EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK OVERNIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO FAR NW AR TOWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT SUPER HIGH, BUT BOTH CAM MODELS SHOW SOME STORM ACTIVITY
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30S FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND JUST ADJUSTED THE TIME WINDOW BACK A FEW
HOURS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. DID INSERT SOME
WIND GUST POTENTIAL PER HRRR.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 100 77 100 / 40 10 0 0
FSM 75 103 76 102 / 0 10 0 10
MLC 75 103 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 67 99 70 100 / 60 10 0 0
FYV 69 99 72 99 / 10 20 0 0
BYV 71 97 72 98 / 20 40 10 10
MKO 72 100 74 100 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 70 97 73 98 / 30 20 0 0
F10 72 101 75 100 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 74 100 75 99 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-
276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220-
229.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
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