401
FXUS64 KTSA 130515
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1215 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HEAT HEADLINES ON MULTIPLE DAYS.
- WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS RECEIVED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS, THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE MUCH MORE
RAINFALL FOR IMPROVEMENT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS OSAGE/PAWNEE
COUNTIES AT PRESENT AND WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS DESPITE BEING LARGELY ELEVATED. ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND DIVE SOUTH AS WELL. THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS OVERNIGHT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THE
CLUSTER MOVING INTO NE OK APPEARS AIDED BY REAR INFLOW JET AND
THUS EXPECT CONTINUED ORGANIZATION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH
A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK, POTENTIALLY
MOVING INTO PART OF NORTHWEST AR BEFORE WEAKENING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY, BUT THE
OVERALL EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR DECREASING CLOD COVER AND HOT
TEMPERATUES EXPANDING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS EASTERN OK. MUCH OF
THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HI VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105, AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE. SOME DATA SUGGESTS AT LEAST A FEW
SPOTS WILL FLIRT WITH 110 FOR A HI.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY IN THE COMING DAYS AS SUMMER
RAGES ON. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO
RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO SOME DEGREE IN AREAS THAT MISS OUT
ON THE CURRENT RAINFALL. CONFIGURATION OF HEADLINES MAY VARY SOME,
BUT BOTTOM LINE IS ANOTHER MULTIPLE DAY STRETCH OF HEAT IS COMING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
WEEK BUT MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BY ABOUT NEXT
WEEKEND, THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
ONGOING COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS NE OK SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH BOTH VISIBILITY AND WIND GUST IMPACTS AT AREA
TERMINALS. THE COMPLEX WILL THEN LIKELY CONTINUE AND TRACK INTO
NW AR, WHILE IN A WEAKENING STATE. STILL MVFR OR OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAIN, ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS NW AR, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE MENTION IN ANY TAFS.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 100 77 100 78 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 103 76 102 77 / 10 0 10 0
MLC 103 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 99 70 100 72 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 99 72 99 73 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 97 72 98 75 / 40 10 10 0
MKO 100 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 97 73 98 76 / 20 0 0 0
F10 101 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 100 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ049-053-055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-
176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04
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