469
FXUS64 KTSA 131711
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1211 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. EXPECT HEAT HEADLINES ON MULTIPLE DAYS.
- WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS RECEIVED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE MUCH
MORE RAINFALL FOR IMPROVEMENT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE COMING TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WILL LIFT NORTH LATER TONIGHT WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST. RECENT
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SLIGHTLY BELOW 100 DEGREES MOST DAYS, WITH MORE SOUTHERN AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN LESS RAINFALL SEEING SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH OR EXCEED 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER DANGER DESPITE
RECENT RAINFALL.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF JUST
WHEN THIS OCCURS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA
DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SOMEWHAT. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES
IN A WEEK OR SO.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH INTERMITTENT SCT TO BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP SPEED BY LATE
MORNING MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 98 79 98 / 10 10 10 0
FSM 76 103 77 102 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 76 102 78 101 / 10 10 10 0
BVO 70 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 0
FYV 71 98 73 98 / 10 10 10 0
BYV 73 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 10
MKO 74 100 75 100 / 10 10 10 0
MIO 73 96 76 97 / 10 10 10 0
F10 76 100 77 99 / 10 10 10 0
HHW 75 101 76 100 / 10 10 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-064>066-
070-071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-
276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220-
229.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67
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