963
FXUS64 KTSA 140414
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1114 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. EXPECT HEAT HEADLINES ON MULTIPLE DAYS.
- WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS RECEIVED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE MUCH
MORE RAINFALL FOR IMPROVEMENT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN QUIET
OVERNIGHT AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. EXPANDING HOT
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDICES OVER A BROADER
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AR AND LARGE
PORTION OF EASTERN OK AT LEAST CLOSE TO 105. CURRENT
CONFIGURATION OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS VALID,
THOUGH MARGINAL IN SOME AREAS. WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR
EAST, ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THIS WEEK
WITH RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND WESTERLIES REMAINING TO THE
NORTH, RESULTING IN SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF SUMMER WEATHER. SURFACE
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT SOME ASSOCIATED CONVECTION COULD BRUSH NORTHERN AREAS
A TIME OR TWO, ALONG WITH ABOVE MENTIONED POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED, MAINLY TERRAIN-DERIVEN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. BUT
THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LIKELY NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO JUST WHEN THIS PATTERN MAY
FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXTENDED
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT A COOLING TREND WITH MORE MEANINGFUL
RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SPREAD IN GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE IN THAT RANGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CU AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT MOST SITES ON
MONDAY.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 98 79 98 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 76 102 76 102 / 10 10 0 0
MLC 77 102 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 70 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 72 97 72 97 / 0 10 0 0
BYV 73 95 75 97 / 0 20 0 0
MKO 74 100 76 99 / 0 10 0 0
MIO 73 96 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
F10 76 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 76 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-
276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220-
229.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
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