918
FXUS64 KTSA 141115
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. EXPECT HEAT HEADLINES ON MULTIPLE DAYS.
- WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS RECEIVED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE MUCH
MORE RAINFALL FOR IMPROVEMENT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN QUIET
OVERNIGHT AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. EXPANDING HOT
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDICES OVER A BROADER
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AR AND LARGE
PORTION OF EASTERN OK AT LEAST CLOSE TO 105. CURRENT
CONFIGURATION OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS VALID,
THOUGH MARGINAL IN SOME AREAS. WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR
EAST, ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THIS WEEK
WITH RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND WESTERLIES REMAINING TO THE
NORTH, RESULTING IN SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF SUMMER WEATHER. SURFACE
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT SOME ASSOCIATED CONVECTION COULD BRUSH NORTHERN AREAS
A TIME OR TWO, ALONG WITH ABOVE MENTIONED POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED, MAINLY TERRAIN-DERIVEN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. BUT
THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LIKELY NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO JUST WHEN THIS PATTERN MAY
FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXTENDED
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT A COOLING TREND WITH MORE MEANINGFUL
RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SPREAD IN GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE IN THAT RANGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE DAY BEFORE BACKING OFF
SOME AFTER SUNSET.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 98 79 98 77 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 102 76 102 77 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 102 78 101 77 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 98 73 98 70 / 0 0 0 20
FYV 97 72 97 72 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 95 75 97 74 / 20 0 0 0
MKO 100 76 99 75 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 96 75 96 73 / 0 0 0 10
F10 100 77 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 100 76 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ049-053-055>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-
354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04
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