951
FXUS64 KTSA 290529
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1229 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY, WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
LOW IMPACT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT,
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES AND A LOW CHANCE OF A
LIGHT SHOWER WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 NEAR DAYBREAK. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-44 AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS, WITH LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40. AREAS ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER COULD END UP COOLER
THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST IF THE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL THIS AREA HAS SEEN SINCE JUNE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS ONSHORE TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH HURRICANE POLO JUST OFF SHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH POLO WILL FLOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SUPPORTING
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH TIME, BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY EVENING IN AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND MOVING OUT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY - ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR LIGHTER
RAINFALL WILL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF
BUZZ ABOUT THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS, AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
IN SOME OF THE HIGHER END TOTALS /2-4 INCHES, LOCALLY 6-7 INCHES/
BEING REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH LESS
ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS. THE NBM QPF IS
HANGING ONTO SOME OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FEATURED IN OLDER MODEL
RUNS, AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NBM
INITIALIZATION TO SHOW SOME LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA USING VARYING AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME
CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH ON THIS SHIFT,
BUT ULTIMATELY, THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT ALLOWING
LATER SHIFTS ANOTHER LOOK. ONE THING THAT WILL WEIGH HEAVILY IS
THE IMPACT OF THE PERSISTENT DROUGHT ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA
CAN TAKE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA /SOUTH OF I-40/ WITH THE HIGHEST
FFG, WHICH IS ANOTHER REASON FOR PUSHING THE WATCH DECISION TO
ANOTHER CYCLE.
FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE FOR A MULTI-DAY PERIOD,
BEGINNING WITH THE RAIN IMPACTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, CONTINUING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND
REINFORCED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS REINFORCEMENT SHOULD ALSO LEAD
TO DRIER CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE, TULSA HAS NOT
SEEN A TEMPERATURE BELOW 60 DEGREES SINCE MAY 25TH AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAY BREAK THAT STREAK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TUESDAY AT THE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SITES. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF'S AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 89 74 90 69 / 10 0 30 90
FSM 95 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 30
MLC 96 74 93 70 / 10 0 20 70
BVO 86 68 88 65 / 20 0 30 100
FYV 89 68 90 68 / 0 0 10 30
BYV 89 69 89 71 / 0 0 0 20
MKO 91 70 91 68 / 10 0 20 70
MIO 84 70 89 68 / 0 0 10 70
F10 92 71 90 67 / 10 0 30 80
HHW 94 72 93 72 / 0 0 10 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05
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