566
FXUS64 KTSA 010445
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT FOR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
- SEVERAL PERIODS OF A HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL TAPERS OFF DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BECOME MORE FALL-LIKE STARTING FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORM IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THE MAIN WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CURRENTLY AHEAD OF A POTENT
UPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LINE OR BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN
ISOLATED QUICK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE, THOUGH THAT PROBABILITY IS PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AS RECORD MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR WILL BE COMMON WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVING INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING, LIKELY WHILE WEAKENING
SOMEWHAT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA.
A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. AGAIN, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING FOR
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED, OWING TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION, SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE INTENSE RAIN RATES. THOSE AREAS MORE PRONE TO FLOODING
SUCH AS URBAN OR LOW LYING AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST IMPACT FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER
3 INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA, A COLD FRONT WILL BE FORCED
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COOLER, MORE FALL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ADDING A LITTLE MORE CHILL TO
THE AIR.
THE ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY
INTO SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS TIME. ANOTHER WEAK
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, BEFORE EXITING THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER PLEASANT CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO FINISH OUT THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
SHOWERS AND FEW/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, AND REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS MAIN ROUND OF PRECIP ALONG WITH
A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PRECIP CHANCES BECOMES MORE
SCATTERED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP BECOME SCATTERED
TO OVERCAST IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY OVER THE CWA. WINDS VARY BETWEEN SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, AND COULD BECOME VARIABLE WITH THE
STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 70 76 63 70 / 100 80 60 10
FSM 75 83 68 79 / 40 70 80 60
MLC 70 81 65 78 / 90 90 60 40
BVO 66 75 59 70 / 100 80 70 10
FYV 69 80 62 74 / 40 70 80 40
BYV 72 82 65 72 / 20 60 80 50
MKO 68 78 64 74 / 90 90 60 30
MIO 69 75 61 70 / 90 90 70 20
F10 67 78 62 73 / 100 90 50 30
HHW 72 82 67 79 / 70 80 90 80
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20
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