874
FXUS64 KTSA 011127
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT FOR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
- SEVERAL PERIODS OF A HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL TAPERS OFF DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BECOME MORE FALL-LIKE STARTING FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORM IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THE MAIN WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CURRENTLY AHEAD OF A POTENT
UPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LINE OR BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN
ISOLATED QUICK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE, THOUGH THAT PROBABILITY IS PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AS RECORD MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR WILL BE COMMON WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVING INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING, LIKELY WHILE WEAKENING
SOMEWHAT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA.
A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. AGAIN, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING FOR
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED, OWING TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION, SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE INTENSE RAIN RATES. THOSE AREAS MORE PRONE TO FLOODING
SUCH AS URBAN OR LOW LYING AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST IMPACT FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER
3 INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA, A COLD FRONT WILL BE FORCED
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COOLER, MORE FALL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ADDING A LITTLE MORE CHILL TO
THE AIR.
THE ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY
INTO SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS TIME. ANOTHER WEAK
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, BEFORE EXITING THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER PLEASANT CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO FINISH OUT THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
PERIODS OF SHOWERS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WILL IMPACT ALL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY END AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SITES LATER THIS EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART TODAY, WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR LATER TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 76 63 70 58 / 100 60 10 10
FSM 83 68 79 63 / 90 80 60 40
MLC 81 65 78 61 / 100 60 40 40
BVO 75 59 70 52 / 90 70 10 0
FYV 80 62 74 56 / 90 80 40 30
BYV 82 65 72 57 / 70 80 50 20
MKO 78 64 74 60 / 100 60 30 30
MIO 75 61 70 55 / 100 70 20 0
F10 78 62 73 58 / 100 50 30 20
HHW 82 67 79 64 / 100 90 80 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05
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