443
FXUS64 KTSA 022337
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- PERIODS OF LOW IMPACT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT, PERHAPS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL TREND UNSEASONABLY
WARM NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE UNLIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR LATE THIS
MORNING. RAINFALL RATES HAVE TRENDED WAY DOWN SINCE EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER A CONCERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINY CONDITIONS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT KEEPING AN
ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION, WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO A
WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TX BY THIS EVENING. THE GENERAL
TROUGHINESS PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30-50%), MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST-CENTRAL AR, AS WELL AS THICK LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT, AND
THEREFORE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
THAT THE THICK, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR SOME FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH MOST OF THIS
CLEARING OCCURS NEAR AND NORTH OF US-412 AND WILL LIKELY FILL BACK
IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL LOWS, BUT WILL STILL
FEEL CRISP COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST PLACES. A FEW AREAS NORTH OF I-44 MAY DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED BY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL HELP
CONTINUE TO DRAW IN LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OK AND WESTERN
AR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MAY BE
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND INTO NORTHWEST AR AT
THE START OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. CAMS SHOW VERY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY, OFF/ON RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH THE
DAYTIME SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO STAY SOMEWHAT BROKEN TO OVERCAST ON SATURDAY, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL; HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTH TX
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. DRY AND MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL FEEL EVERY BIT OF AUTUMN,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EVERYWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK AND
SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS
HIGH AND DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE FRONT MAY DROP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ON MONDAY, COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONT MAY BE FELT MORE DURING THE EVENINGS AND
EARLY MORNINGS WHEN LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
50S BOTH MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE WEAK
FRONT ON SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AND INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY, ONCE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS MAKE A
RETURN. GUIDANCE EVEN BRINGS BACK WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S AND
PERHAPS EVEN LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-40 BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MVFR TO PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
44 AND THIS TREND LIKELY PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANY IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LOWER CEILINGS EXPAND NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY DOES INCREASE ACROSS FAR NW AR WHERE SOME GUIDANCE
BRINGS DRIER AIR AND LESSER CLOUD COVER BUT THIS FORECAST WILL
REMAIN NEAR PERSISTENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT DRIZZLE OR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO EXPAND ACROSS SE OK LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH
PERIODIC LOWER VISIBILITIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 76 61 80 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 65 78 63 86 / 20 20 20 0
MLC 63 78 62 86 / 20 30 20 0
BVO 52 76 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 58 77 57 82 / 10 10 10 0
BYV 59 75 59 81 / 0 10 0 0
MKO 62 77 61 82 / 10 10 10 0
MIO 56 75 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
F10 60 76 59 82 / 10 20 10 0
HHW 65 77 63 86 / 30 30 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07
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