148
FXUS64 KTSA 030404
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1104 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NEARBY WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL TREND UNSEASONABLY
WARM NEXT WEEK.
- NO RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SUBTLE LIFT BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET SEGMENT WILL CONTINUE
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS TONIGHT. THIS
PATTERN WILL SHIFT A LITTLE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS THE TAIL OF
A STRONG SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE AREA. SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SHIFTS A BIT NORTH AS WELL FOR A BRIEF WINDOW. THAT PATTERN
WILL BREAK DOWN LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST.
PLEASANT FALL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG SYSTEM
ALOFT MOVES ON SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROMOTE
DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO ALL OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY AS FASTER FLOW ALOFT
STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
WILL EXPAND A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE COMING WEEK AND ENCOURAGE A
WARM UP WITH TIME IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MVFR TO PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
44 AND THIS TREND LIKELY PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANY IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LOWER CEILINGS EXPAND NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY DOES INCREASE ACROSS FAR NW AR WHERE SOME GUIDANCE
BRINGS DRIER AIR AND LESSER CLOUD COVER BUT THIS FORECAST WILL
REMAIN NEAR PERSISTENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT DRIZZLE OR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO EXPAND ACROSS SE OK LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH
PERIODIC LOWER VISIBILITIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 60 75 60 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 77 64 78 63 / 20 20 20 10
MLC 72 63 77 61 / 30 20 30 10
BVO 75 53 75 56 / 0 0 10 0
FYV 70 59 76 56 / 0 10 10 0
BYV 68 58 74 57 / 10 0 10 0
MKO 72 62 77 59 / 0 20 10 0
MIO 73 56 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
F10 70 61 76 58 / 0 20 10 0
HHW 74 65 77 63 / 30 30 40 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...07
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