732
FXUS64 KTSA 031045
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NEARBY WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL TREND UNSEASONABLY
WARM NEXT WEEK.
- NO RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SUBTLE LIFT BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET SEGMENT WILL CONTINUE
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS TONIGHT. THIS
PATTERN WILL SHIFT A LITTLE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS THE TAIL OF
A STRONG SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE AREA. SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SHIFTS A BIT NORTH AS WELL FOR A BRIEF WINDOW. THAT PATTERN
WILL BREAK DOWN LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST.
PLEASANT FALL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG SYSTEM
ALOFT MOVES ON SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROMOTE
DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO ALL OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY AS FASTER FLOW ALOFT
STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
WILL EXPAND A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE COMING WEEK AND ENCOURAGE A
WARM UP WITH TIME IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
MVFR TO LOCALLY, IFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH THESE CEILINGS MORE PATCHY ACROSS FAR NW AR AND NE OK. ALL
SITES SHOULD SEE PREVAILING CEILING REDUCTIONS FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN NE OK AND W AR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE W AR SITES WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MLC SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVEN CAMS AND WHERE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED.
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 60 80 56 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 78 63 86 58 / 20 10 0 0
MLC 77 61 85 57 / 30 10 0 0
BVO 75 56 79 50 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 76 56 81 51 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 74 57 80 53 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 77 59 82 55 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 76 56 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
F10 76 58 82 54 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 77 63 86 59 / 40 10 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...22
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