922
FXUS64 KTSA 031727
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NEARBY WEST-
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO EXIT BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL TREND UNSEASONABLY
WARM NEXT WEEK.
- NO RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A WEAK ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WAS POSITIONED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS WAS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THIS AXIS, WHICH WAS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
MEAN MID LAYER FLOW. INSTABILITY REMAINED GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER, THUS KEEPING LIGHTNING POTENTIAL LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL WAS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SHOWERS
AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE NEAR 2 INCHES NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER.
THROUGH MID EVENING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FORECAST FOR
MAINLY INTERSTATE 40 AND SOUTH, WITH LESSER POTENTIAL NORTHWARD UP
TOWARD INTERSTATE 44 AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS HOLDS IN
PLACE. DURING THE EVENING HOURS A SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST, AND PUSH THE TROF AXIS SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION AND PUSH THE LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA TODAY WILL HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS CLOUD COVER LOOKS
TO BEGIN SCATTERING OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE PLAINS. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH CLOUDS CAN SCATTER OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS
AS ENOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD FOR FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO LIMIT VISIBILITY REDUCTION. HOWEVER, IT
COULD BE CLOSE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
CLOUD COVER IS PROGGED TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME,
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S FORECAST. THESE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT WILL AID IN LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE REGION.
WINDS BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH MID WEEK WITH THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TRYING TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH A SIGNAL SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN OF SHOWERS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING/LIFTING
NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THOUGH ITS SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE WEEK AHEAD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR, WITH POCKETS OF IFR (DUE TO MODERATE
RAIN) NEAR KMLC, CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS
THIS MIXTURE OF MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS SE OK AND
INTO NW AR THROUGH THE DAYTIME. SOME DRIZZLE MAY END UP MIXING IN
WITH RAIN SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NW AR. INCLUDED SOME
PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL FOUR AR TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
RAIN AND DRIZZLE CHANCES SHOULD END FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING, BUT EXACT END TIMING MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED.
GENERALLY, LOW CIGS WILL HANG AROUND AND MVFR IS ANTICIPATED TO
PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES, THOUGH
INTERMITTENT VFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND OR
JUST AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH VFR PREVAILING EVERYWHERE BY
LATE MORNING.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 62 80 56 80 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 65 84 59 84 / 20 0 0 0
MLC 65 82 57 83 / 20 10 0 0
BVO 59 80 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 58 79 53 78 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 59 80 54 78 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 63 81 56 81 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 58 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
F10 61 81 55 81 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 66 84 60 84 / 30 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...67
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