122
FXUS64 KTSA 040452
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR
BEFORE EXITING SUNDAY MORNING.
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK TREND UNSEASONABLY WARM
BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
- NO RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, THERE IS AT LEAST LOW
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN PORTIONS OF NW AR/NE OK,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
CONCLUDE SUNDAY MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL PERMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...LIKELY NEAR OR GREATER THAN 80 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
OVERALL, LOW IMPACT WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR OR PERHAPS A TAD COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TUESDAY AS MODEST UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S BY LATE WEEK. LOW TEMPS
LIKELY END UP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS (LOWER- MID 50S) BUT INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES
BY MID-LATE WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THOUGH SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OUT OF TX. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW, HOWEVER, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS ONLY LOW POPS (<10 PERCENT).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
LOWER CEILINGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44 PRIMARILY ACROSS SE OK INTO WEST CENTRAL AR. THIS
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG OR LOWER CEILING EXPANSION DOES EXIST OVERNIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING. FORECAST WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW THE ONGOING PATTERN WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT LEVELS AREA WIDE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 62 82 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 65 85 59 83 / 50 0 0 0
MLC 65 85 58 84 / 60 10 0 0
BVO 59 81 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 58 81 53 79 / 30 0 0 0
BYV 59 80 54 76 / 20 0 0 0
MKO 63 83 56 81 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 58 79 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
F10 61 82 55 81 / 30 0 0 0
HHW 66 85 61 85 / 60 20 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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