886
FXUS64 KTSA 041714
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK TREND UNSEASONABLY WARM
BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
- RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WAS TRANSPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE, LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF
MID 70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BECOME COMMON FOR THE CWA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP RADIATIONAL COOLING AS LOWS FALL INTO
THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY/FOG DEVELOPMENT EXISTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORMAL COOL VALLEY LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME THOUGH,
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THUS, WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IT IN THE
FORECAST AND NOTE ITS POTENTIAL HERE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND THEN
BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE
BROADENS OUT/FLATTENS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY, AND THEN BEGIN A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S, AND THEN ALSO BEGIN A
WARMING TREND. THE COOLEST MORNING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL OF THE NORMAL COOL VALLEY LOCATIONS OF FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BRIEFLY TOUCHING UPPER 40S.
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. DETAILS AT THIS TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN, THOUGH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS COULD RETURN NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK AS LATEST DATA COME
IN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY KFYV. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH TODAY, HELPING KEEP SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE N/NE AS WELL AS
HELP CLEAR OUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS CALM
AFTER SUNSET AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, BUT
GIVEN KFYV WAS SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, WILL GO AHEAD
AND INCLUDE A BROAD TEMPO GROUP AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR REDUCED VSBYS
DOWN TO ABOUT A MILE THROUGH SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF
THE EAST BY MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 82 57 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 83 59 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 81 57 81 54 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 81 53 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 81 53 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 80 54 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 81 57 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 79 54 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
F10 80 56 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 81 60 82 55 / 20 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...67
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