541
FXUS64 KTSA 042332
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK TREND UNSEASONABLY WARM
BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
- RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WAS TRANSPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE, LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF
MID 70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BECOME COMMON FOR THE CWA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP RADIATIONAL COOLING AS LOWS FALL INTO
THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY/FOG DEVELOPMENT EXISTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORMAL COOL VALLEY LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME THOUGH,
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THUS, WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IT IN THE
FORECAST AND NOTE ITS POTENTIAL HERE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND THEN
BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE
BROADENS OUT/FLATTENS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY, AND THEN BEGIN A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S, AND THEN ALSO BEGIN A
WARMING TREND. THE COOLEST MORNING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL OF THE NORMAL COOL VALLEY LOCATIONS OF FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BRIEFLY TOUCHING UPPER 40S.
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. DETAILS AT THIS TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN, THOUGH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS COULD RETURN NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK AS LATEST DATA COME
IN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR AREA WIDE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG IN COLDER VALLEYS OF NW AR AND NEAR
AREA LAKES IS POSSIBLE BUT NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
ANY FOG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 55 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 57 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 56 81 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 50 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 50 79 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 54 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 55 79 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 52 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
F10 54 79 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 58 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page