813
FXUS64 KTSA 050437
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
- RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL INTO THE 50S TONIGHT AREAWIDE. A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IF
WINDS MANAGE TO CALM COMPLETELY. SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP REDUCE
THIS POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY,
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS NOW
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA, WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE. ALL IN ALL, IT WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT FALL DAY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LOW IMPACT WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN
IN THE 50S AREAWIDE (ISOLATED UPPER 40S FAR NE OK AND NW AR). BY
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD, BRINGING WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH AGAIN. AT THE SAME TIME, MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKS
INTO THE REGION, WITH A WEAKNESS IN HEIGHTS DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONWARD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL SEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA MID-WEEK, BUT
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE FA WITH
LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWER PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LOW RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR THE AREA, PRIMARILY IN FAR E OK AND NW AR. THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, AND PLENTY OF DRY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN POTENTIAL. FOR NOW, A DRY
FORECAST REMAINS APPROPRIATE AND POPS WERE HELD TO 10 PERCENT OR
LOWER. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE REGION EARLY-MID
NEXT WEEK. MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY THAT TIME,
BUT IF IT PANS OUT, COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE EXPECTED. TIME WILL TELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR AREA WIDE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG IN COLDER VALLEYS OF NW AR AND NEAR
AREA LAKES IS POSSIBLE BUT NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
ANY FOG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 55 81 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 57 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 56 82 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 50 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 50 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 54 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 55 81 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 52 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
F10 54 81 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 58 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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