346
FXUS64 KTSA 050529
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1229 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY MONDAY MORNING FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
- RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL INTO THE 50S TONIGHT AREAWIDE. A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IF
WINDS MANAGE TO CALM COMPLETELY. SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP REDUCE
THIS POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY,
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS NOW
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA, WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE. ALL IN ALL, IT WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT FALL DAY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LOW IMPACT WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN
IN THE 50S AREAWIDE (ISOLATED UPPER 40S FAR NE OK AND NW AR). BY
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD, BRINGING WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH AGAIN. AT THE SAME TIME, MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKS
INTO THE REGION, WITH A WEAKNESS IN HEIGHTS DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONWARD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL SEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA MID-WEEK, BUT
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE FA WITH
LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWER PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LOW RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR THE AREA, PRIMARILY IN FAR E OK AND NW AR. THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, AND PLENTY OF DRY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN POTENTIAL. FOR NOW, A DRY
FORECAST REMAINS APPROPRIATE AND POPS WERE HELD TO 10 PERCENT OR
LOWER. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE REGION EARLY-MID
NEXT WEEK. MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY THAT TIME,
BUT IF IT PANS OUT, COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE EXPECTED. TIME WILL TELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS
LATER THIS MORNING FYV AREA, BUT CHANCES OF THAT ARE MUCH LOWER THAN
SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT WIND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 84 55 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 82 54 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 80 49 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 81 49 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 81 51 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 81 53 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 79 52 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
F10 81 53 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 84 56 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...69
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