108
FXUS64 KTSA 191613
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1114 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. CLOUDS PLUS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND IN
SOME LOCATIONS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS,
MAINLY IN THE 40S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PRESENT MONDAY
AND THERE ARE A FEW HINTS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN VERY DRY AND WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA AND AT MOST A SPRINKLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A BIT WARMER, THOUGH THE CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD THE WARM-UP IN CHECK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK, WE WILL
SEE A CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK CONCERNING AT THIS POINT IN TERMS OF FIRE
WEATHER, THOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAKENING
PACIFIC LOW TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS, POSSIBLY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF RAIN NEXT WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT PRESENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A MIX OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10KTS
OR LESS SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE DIURNAL TREND OF
LOWER SPEEDS AT NIGHT AND AN INCREASE LATE MORNING LIKELY AT ALL
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 50 76 51 / 10 0 10 10
FSM 81 50 79 51 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 76 48 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 72 48 74 48 / 10 0 10 10
FYV 77 50 76 50 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 76 48 74 49 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 75 50 76 50 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 73 49 73 50 / 10 0 0 10
F10 74 49 76 49 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 79 48 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22
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