869
FXUS64 KTSA 201112
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1052 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- WE MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING INTO NM WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
INCREASING LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. CAMS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES SPREADING ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM TOPS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE AND THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DRY BELOW 700MB, WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE 500-700MB LAYER. HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY MANAGE TO GET SOME
HYDROMETEORS TO THE SURFACE, BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LOOK
PRETTY SLIM. WILL INSERT SPRINKLE MENTION INTO THE GRIDS AND CALL
IT GOOD.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR
80 IN THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY.
LACY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OFF THE WEST COAST TOMORROW AND
WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AN AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND
CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE MODELS TAKE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
NORTH TOWARD AWAY FROM OUR REGION AND TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE THIS WEEK, WITH SOME ENERGY HANGING BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, SO THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES KEEPS GETTING
PUSHED BACK. BOTTOM LINE, RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS FORECAST
REMAIN LOW AT BEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNTIL THE SECOND SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY COMES EAST.
LACY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15-20KFT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS STAY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 50 77 51 / 10 10 10 0
FSM 78 51 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 77 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 73 46 76 48 / 10 10 10 0
FYV 75 47 77 48 / 0 0 10 0
BYV 73 49 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 75 50 77 51 / 0 0 10 0
MIO 72 49 73 49 / 10 0 10 0
F10 75 49 78 50 / 10 0 10 0
HHW 77 50 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67
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