388
FXUS64 KTSA 211132
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- LOW RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES WERE ADDED LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PASSING UPPER WAVE.
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND INTERACTS WITH
A PASSING COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
AN UPPER WAVE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND IN THE 500MB
RAP ANALYSIS OVER SW KS THIS EVENING. CAMS SHOW INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS/NORTH-CENTRAL
OK TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LIFT FROM THE WAVE OVERSPREADS THE
REGION, SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO NE OK INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ACTIVITY HAS INDEED BEEN INCREASING ON RADAR RECENTLY,
WITH LIGHTNING OBSERVED IN SOME OF IT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ENOUGH TO YIELD SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT. DUE TO PREVAILING
SURFACE RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY, WITH THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB. NEVERTHELESS, PRECIP COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
THE WAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MENTION OF
SPRINKLES WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST HOWEVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LACY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS,
DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGHING IN THE WEST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE WEEKEND.
CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OCCUR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENERGY IN
THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS, WHILE A TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM DIVES DOWN INTO THE COUNTRY FROM CANADA. THE
LATTER SYSTEM WILL FORCE A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP OVER THE
REGION AS THE WAVE AND FRONT INTERACT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THIS FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
ONGOING HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT, OR AT LEAST BE IN THE VICINITY OF, KBVO,
KTUL, AND KRVS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY OR JUST BEFORE NOONTIME, BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AFTER 15Z/10 AM
CT. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 52 79 53 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 81 53 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 79 51 82 53 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 76 48 78 48 / 20 0 0 0
FYV 78 47 81 51 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 76 50 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 78 52 80 54 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 74 50 77 52 / 10 0 0 0
F10 78 51 81 52 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 79 53 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67
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