199
FXUS64 KTSA 221055
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
A WEAK MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS EXITING THE AREA AND THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL END SHORTLY. DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW 50S.
SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING REMAINING ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY, WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY LIGHT, FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN USA WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR PROGRESS MOVING
EAST. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND WE WILL SEE INCREASED SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH.
THIS MAY LOCALLY INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST OF I-44, WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR TO STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH PERIODIC TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES. THERE IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANY SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, BUT THE
PROBABILITIES DO APPEAR TO BE INCREASING FOR AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL
TO OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL WILL LIKELY DECREASE CLOSER TO NORMAL
DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COOL AIR INTRUSIONS FROM WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 53 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 84 54 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 83 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 80 48 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 81 49 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 79 51 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 81 53 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 78 52 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
F10 81 53 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 83 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67
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