161
FXUS64 KTSA 250420
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1120 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
NEAR PERSISTENT CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. RIDGING
ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE RESULTANT
STEERING FLOW WILL DIRECT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. ANY
RESULTANT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
REGION WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD EXPECTED
LOCALLY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE PATTERN ALOFT DOES FLATTEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY ALLOW A WEAKER
TRAILING WAVE TO PASS FROM SW TX INTO THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY
EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO E OK EARLY
TUESDAY. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN LARGELY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS MAY TREND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING
THE AFTERNOONS WHICH COULD LOCALLY RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
UNCERTAINTY DOES INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORE FAST MOVING WAVES TO PASS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSING WAVES ALSO ADDS
UNCERTAINTY AND GUIDANCE REMAINS VARIED IN BOTH STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF ANY MEANINGFUL FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL THE
EVOLVING PATTERN CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 57 81 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 55 83 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 56 82 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 52 80 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 54 81 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 54 80 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 56 81 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 55 80 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
F10 55 82 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 55 81 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05
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