986
FXUS64 KTSA 251122
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
NEAR PERSISTENT CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. RIDGING
ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE RESULTANT
STEERING FLOW WILL DIRECT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. ANY
RESULTANT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
REGION WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD EXPECTED
LOCALLY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE PATTERN ALOFT DOES FLATTEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY ALLOWING A
WEAKER TRAILING WAVE TO PASS FROM SW TX INTO THE MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AS THE WAVE
PASSES BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO E OK
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN LARGELY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS MAY TREND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHICH COULD LOCALLY RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
UNCERTAINTY DOES INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORE FAST MOVING WAVES TO PASS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSING WAVES ALSO ADDS
UNCERTAINTY AND GUIDANCE REMAINS VARIED IN BOTH STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF ANY MEANINGFUL FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL THE
EVOLVING PATTERN CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS BETWEEN EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY REMAIN COMMON
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 54 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 83 54 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 82 53 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 80 50 78 51 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 81 48 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 80 52 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 81 52 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 80 53 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
F10 82 53 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 81 53 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
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