086
FXUS64 KTSA 252322
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES. PERSISTENCE OF THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH, THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
HAS BEEN NOTED TODAY. THIS MIGHT SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGH
TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT IN GENERAL THIS REMAINS A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL OFF NICELY AGAIN WITH
DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS, WITH NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS FALLING
BELOW NBM NUMBERS AND MORE IN LINE WITH CONSMOS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES THROUGH MONDAY AS CURRENT WAVE CROSSING
THE ROCKIES STEERED TOT HE NORTH. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A POTENTIAL SECONDARY WAVE TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO
THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT AS THE SURFACE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO FAVOR BRINGING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN FROM THE EAST.
A GENERAL BREAKDOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE IS INDICATED BY LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE, HOWEVER ANY DETAILS AT THIS POINT HAVE YET TO BE
RESOLVED. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN HE WEATHER ANTICIPATED UNTIL POSSIBLY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CURRENT PATTERN
DOES BREAK IT WOULD LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH NOT MUCH OF AN INDICATION OF A
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 54 79 57 78 / 0 0 10 10
FSM 51 81 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 54 79 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 48 78 51 75 / 0 0 10 20
FYV 48 77 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 52 77 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 52 79 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 50 77 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
F10 52 79 55 78 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 55 79 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05
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