706
FXUS63 KUNR 141732
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1032 AM MST THU NOV 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-SEASONALLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK
-LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP
-POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN IN STORE NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER
AND WINDY WEATHER
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MST THU NOV 14 2024
MILD PAC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WSW FLOW
PERSISTS ALOFT. HOWEVER, AN ACTIVE JET IN THE NORTHERN PAC WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK TO COLDER AND
POTENTIALLY MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, ALL ENSUING WITH A DIGGING
SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIAL CLOSED UPPER LOW. WARM WSW
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A MILD DAY TODAY AS WEAK IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. BREEZY WSW WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SW
THIRD. EXPECT DRY CONDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S TODAY. SFC
TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LL FLOW
BEGINS TO RESPOND TO THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH COOLER CONDS
EXPECTED PER SE UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION
SAT, SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
THIRD SAT. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO NE
WY AND THE NORTHERN BH. DRY AND MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AFTER
WHICH MUCH COOLER AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER IS PROGGED.
FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK, WITH THE AMOUNT OF
SOUTHWARD DIGGING AND POTENTIAL NORTHERN STREAM SPLITTING DRIVING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF/GFS/AND CMC ALL INDICATE THAT A VIGOROUS SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS/WESTERN MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THEY
HAVE BEEN WAVERING EXTREMELY ON THEIR RUN-RUN SOLUTIONS, WITH SOME
RUNS INDICATING A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR A PORTION OF THE PLAINS,
ESP IF THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND CLOSES AS OPPOSE TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. ONE KEY FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE CASE
FOR AN IMPACTFUL STORM IN THE PLAINS WOULD BE THE DEGREE AND SPEED
OF A WESTERN NOAM RIDGE REBOUND (PER A VIGOROUS LOW OVER THE NE
PAC) COUPLED WITH THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE NW ATLANTIC
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT BLOCKED DOWNSTREAM FLOW. ALL IN ALL,
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS REMAINS QUITE LOW AND WILL BE WORKED
OUT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SOMETHING CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST THU NOV 14 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT OVER NORTHEASTERN WY TOMORROW MORNING BEGINNING AROUND
14Z.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...WONG/SCHULTZ
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