392
FXUS63 KUNR 152033
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
133 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY
- SEASONAL WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- COLDER, WINDIER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL WY WITH A TROUGH INTO
THE DAKOTAS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE CWA. WATER VAPOUR
LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO CA, WHICH WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT/SATURDAY, UPPER TROUGH SPLITS WITH MAIN ENERGY DIPPING
INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY ZIPS FROM EASTERN ID
INTO SOUTHERN MB. CENTRAL WY SURFACE LOW SHOOTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT WITH BEST QG/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER THE
FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA. POPS WARRANTED FOR SOME
RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY. CHANCE OF >0.10" QPF VIRTUALLY ZERO, SO
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHWEST SD.
BEHIND COLD FRONT, 1-3MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES COMBINED WITH MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING WINDY SPOTS TO NORTHWEST SD. CHANCE
OF >45MPH WIND GUSTS LESS THAN 50%, SO WILL FORGO HEADLINES WITH
THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE, BUT WITH AN
EXTRA SNAP IN THE AIR GIVEN THE WIND SATURDAY.
TRANSIENT FLAT RIDGE SUNDAY DISAPPEARS MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS, WHICH WILL EJECT NORTHERN
MEXICO UPPER LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN (PROBABLY) INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO THE
"EASTERN" SOLUTION. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM THIS
LOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ENDS UP
OVER WI LATE TUESDAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND TRAILING
COLD FRONT. EFI DEPICTS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE HEADLINES. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT RIGHT NOW WITH NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA SEEING
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (>1" CHANCE <50% PER LREF-NH).
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN TO MILD/MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH
OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...WONG
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