776
FXUS63 KUNR 181126
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
426 AM MST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER TODAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING
WIND, COLDER TEMPS, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD
-INCREASINGLY WINDY TUES AND WED, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD,
WITH ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
-WARMING BACK UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM MST MON NOV 18 2024
POTENT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
FAIRLY ROBUST STORM SYSTEM THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM
MERGES WITH AN EJECTING UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE
TODAY AS THE SW CONUS CLOSED LOW EJECTS UP THROUGH THE EASTERN
CENTRAL PLAINS. GOMEX MOISTURE WILL BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION WITH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW, SUPPORTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER EASTERN SD LATER TODAY, WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH FROM THIS SYSTEM. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST WY LATER TODAY AND SPREAD INTO THE BH TONIGHT AS
STRONGER LIFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL CHANCE TO SNOW
AS TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW IN THE WEST,
MAYBE AN INCH AT MOST, WITH ELEVATION DEFINITELY INFLUENCING
AMOUNTS. THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FA WILL ESSENTIALLY BE SPLIT
WRT PRECIP AS THE WESTERN TROUGH LIFTS NE AND DRY SLOTTING SPREADS
INTO WESTERN SD. BULK OF MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS UPPER
LOW WILL SHIFT WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FA. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. WINDS WILL LIKELY HIT ADV TO LOW END
WARNING LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL SD PLAINS WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE WED
(ESP IN THE MORNING) AS THE TWO TROUGHS PHASE AND THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS UNDER A DEEPLY MIXED BL. WILL LEAVE THE WIND HEADLINES AS
IS AND DEFER ANY CHANGES/UPGRADES TO THE NEXT SHIFT. THERE REMAINS
SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS WITH
THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT POTENTIALLY SETTING UP NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION, AFFECTING WIND SPEEDS LOCALLY. COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED
TUE AND WED WITH A BRIEF SPELL OF WINTER LIKE TEMPS. AFTER WED,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS RIDGING ENSUES, SUPPORTING SOME WAA AND
DRY/MILD WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MEAN TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL SETUP A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH IMPULSES
LIKELY WAVERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SUPPORTING SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND SOME BOUTS OF COLDER
TEMPS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY,
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEAST WY TO
THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND EXPANDING INTO
NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL
EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST WY, THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS, AND INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN SD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE
TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS, WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 35 TO NEAR 50
KTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SDZ001-012-013-026-031-072-073-078.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SDZ002-014-032-043-044-046-047-049-077.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...26
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