388
FXUS63 KUNR 160528
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1028 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY AREAS OF RAIN, SNOW, OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY.
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
CURRENT UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW PAC WITH A
A SHORTWAVE FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN SD. CURRENT SURFACE MODEL
DEPICTS LOW OVER WESTERN SD WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM FAR EASTERN ND, DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL NE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN WY, NORTHWESTERN SD, AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD. CURRENT
PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY RAIN, HOWEVER ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER MAY
BE SEEING A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AREAS EXPERIENCING
RAIN WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER,
WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATION BLACK HILLS AREAS. ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF
A HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CAA BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ISN'T SUPER STRONG, HOWEVER ENOUGH TO REACH LOW END WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE ISSUED HEADLINE FROM NORTHWESTERN SD DOWN
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS LIGHT SNOW, WITH VERY LOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. LREF PROBABILITY OF 1" OR MORE OF SNOW IS ONLY IN THE 10
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY, PROMPTING WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NW SD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD THROUGH MON MORNING, WITH LL WIND SHEAR IN THE LEE OF
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST /3 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-032-043-044-046-047-049-072-073-077-078.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...JC
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