178
FXUS63 KUNR 202127
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A SHORTWAVE CLIPPER
CROSSING MT/ND. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA, THOUGH
FORCING OVER ND IS JUST EDGING FAR NORTHWEST SD, BRINGING
VIRGA/ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST OF THE CWA BY
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE 20S/LOW 30S OVER
NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S...EVEN NEAR 60 ACROSS THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS, WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL OCCUR. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
ISN'T MUCH QPF EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BULK OF IT WILL STAY
NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA ANYWAY. BUT, LIKE TODAY, THE SYSTEM MAY GRAZE
NORTHWEST SD WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY BUT, AS OF NOW, WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS WEEK. MODELS DO SHOW A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS
CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT THESE MAY STAY
SOUTH OF THE REGION, KEEPING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...10
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