149
FXUS63 KUNR 141732
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1032 AM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER MID-WEEK
- ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, CURRENTLY
ENDING THE SNOW OVER PARTS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. EXPECT CONDITIONS
OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
SO WILL EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS ON SCHEDULE AT 11 AM.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
WATER VAPOR SHOWS NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN MT. FURTHER WEST, UPPER HIGH IS
OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST WITH RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE PAC NW. AT
THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH IS TRACKING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY HAVING SHIFTED UP AGAINST
THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS AS WELL AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN MT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ONE MORE PUSH OF UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS IS
EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE PASSES NEARLY OVERHEAD.
SNOW SHOULD THEN WIND DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE MORE INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP IT
ACTIVE. ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE.
WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S/40S AND THURSDAY IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS.
DEEP UPPER TROF WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN TIER FRIDAY, WITH
A SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF MORE ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LIGHT SNOW LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS, WHILE PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE PLAINS ARE LOW. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AS DEEP LONG WAVE
TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS, ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST
CORE OF AIR IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH/EAST. WARMER
PACIFIC AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ024.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ057.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DYE
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