225
FXUS63 KUNR 142056
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
156 PM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- ARCTIC AIR, WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW, THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TAPERING OFF OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS FLOPPING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S/40S AND THURSDAY IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS.
A BROAD, DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL
CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
PUSH OF COLD ARCTIC AIR. LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC
FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. PROBABILITIES FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS ARE LOW.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE 20
TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, AS A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. THE COLDEST CORE OF AIR IS
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH/EAST. WARMER PACIFIC AIR WILL
LIKELY MOVE BACK IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST TUE JAN 14 2025
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...10
AVIATION...DYE
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