761
FXUS63 KUNR 200444
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
944 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS INTO TUESDAY MORNING
-COLDEST WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
-CLIPPER WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH
WIND AND SOME SNOW WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HAS SETTLED INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS,
BRINGING COLD TEMPS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. UPPER RIDGING
INTO THE WESTERN NOAM WILL ENSUE AND SUPPORT A COMPARATIVELY
WARMER PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH NW FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. SECONDARY ARCTIC IMPULSE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION WITH WEAK WAA SUPPORTING AND LL UPGLIDE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SCT FLURRIES AND CLOUDS THERE. THIS
IMPULSE WILL PUSH INTO REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING ALONG
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CAA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY NW WINDS
ALONG WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO AND SUPPORT DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
OF 35 BELOW OR COLDER INTO MONDAY MORNING, COLDEST ACROSS NW SD
WHERE SOME PLACES COULD SEE WIND CHILL READINGS NEAR 50 BELOW.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE ABOVE ZERO
AT MANY AREAS, ESP ACROSS NORTHWEST SD. HAVE ISSUED A EXTREME COLD
WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, ADJUSTING THE COLD
WEATHER ADV TO MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUES MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SE OUT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER AIR
SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION TUES AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OR SO AS PRESSURE FALLS ENSUE. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AFTERWARD WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS AFFECTING
THE REGION BY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF, WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. GUTSY NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WED, WITH
GUSTS OVER 45 MPH EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
EXPECTED THU INTO FRI WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND WIND
POSSIBLE. NEGATIVE AO TENDENCIES AFTER NEXT WEEKEND TEND TO FAVOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE ARCTIC OUTBREAK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN CORE OF COLD AIR MAY PASS EAST OF THE FA WITH
TEMP UNCERTAINTY REMAINING HIGH ATTM.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 940 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 35 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SCATTERED MVFR CIGS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR
SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ MONDAY TO 8 AM
MST /9 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-
041>044-046-047-049-072>078.
WY...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ054>060.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
WYZ054>060.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...WONG
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