379
FXUS63 KUNR 190944
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS OF -20 TO -40, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
- A DRAMATIC WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK,
AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
MOSTLY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WESTERN ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA AND A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST STATES. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER
IN MANY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES ARE BOTTOMING OUT. CURRENTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS, WITH SOME -30S ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST SD. SOME RECORD LOW DAILY TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
BROKEN, WITH RAPID CITY AIRPORT ALREADY SHATTERING THEIR PREVIOUS
RECORD FOR TODAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE NOT
MUCH LOWER THAN THE TEMPS, MOSTLY RANGING FROM -20 TO AROUND -40
AT THIS TIME. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT, REACHING THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN FRIGID THROUGH THAT TIME, WITH HIGHS REACHING
CLOSE TO ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS, WITH SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST WY, THE BLACK HILLS,
AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT THIS MORNING, THEN INCREASE A
BIT FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO
PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SD AS SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL REACH THE -10S TO AROUND -20 TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS, WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO
AROUND ZERO OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AS SOME MILDER AIR
ALOFT STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS, WHERE VALUES WILL DROP
TO -20 TO AROUND -35 AT TIMES, LOWEST VALUES MOSTLY FROM NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL SD.
THE WARMUP STARTS ON THURSDAY AND REALLY RAMPS UP ON FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS. A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE QUICKNESS OF THE WARMUP TO
SOME EXTENT LATE WEEK, BUT DEVELOPING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO DISSIPATE NEWER SNOWFALL RATHER QUICKLY.
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REACH THE
50S IN MANY AREAS, WITH SOME 60S LIKELY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, THOSE WESTERLY WINDS
COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SD. WEATHER LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY LATE WEEK INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS LIKELY RETURNING AND AT LEAST SOME
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 936 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW, AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS, CURRENTLY
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING, THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD, AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL ON
WEDNESDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9
AM MST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-
030>032-042>044-046-047-049-072-073-076>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR SDZ024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>077.
WY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR WYZ060.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
WYZ054>060.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...26
AVIATION...10
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