059
FXUS63 KUNR 192019
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
119 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS OF -20 TO -35, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
- A DRAMATIC WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY DOMINATING CENTRAL US, KEEPING FRIGID
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
DEPICTS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MN/IA/SD WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN US. SNOW COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY TEMPER
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WAA. WITH
THE SNOW COVER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL REACH 10 TO AROUND 20
BELOW TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS, WITH MOSTLY SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW TO AROUND ZERO OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS
AS SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO AROUND 35 BELOW AT TIMES, WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES MOSTLY FROM NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD. THEREFORE
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE COLD WX HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK,
TRIGGERING A WARMING TREND. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE RUNS DEPICT
850 MB TEMPS RISING TO +10C BY LATE SUNDAY. SNOW COVER WILL
LIKELY IMPACT HOW WARM WE'LL GET THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH WILL HELP DISSIPATE
THE NEWER SNOWFALL. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE
DEPICTS 70 TO 100% PROBS OF 2M TEMPS EXCEEDING 50F ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN SD.
LREF PAINTS 50 TO 70% PROBS FOR 2M TEMPS TO EXCEED 55F ACROSS
STURGIS DOWN TO RAPID CITY ON SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS,
WESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD. WEATHER LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY
LATE WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS LIKELY
RETURNING AND AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9
AM MST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-
030>032-042>044-046-047-049-072-073-076>078.
WY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR WYZ060.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...HELGESON
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