062
FXUS63 KUNR 200940
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTER COLD CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL US THIS MORNING.
UPPER AIR MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE OVER IN/IL WITH RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE
NEGATIVE TEENS TO AROUND NEGATIVE 5 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY, TAKING SOME OF THE FRIGID AIR ALONG WITH
IT, AS LOW LEVEL WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION. SURFACE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TEMPER HIGHS TODAY SOMEWHAT, BUT STILL
WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ADVECTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
REGION. SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON FRIDAY SOMEWHAT, WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 850
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 8-10C RANGE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
PROMPTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY, LREF'S PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING 50 DEGREES SHOWS A BULLSEYE OF 70-100% FROM NEWELL
DOWN THROUGH RAPID CITY. ENSEMBLES KEEP THIS WARMER PATTERN OVER
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS MODELS SHOW AN UPPER WAVE
TRAVERSING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 933 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ001-002.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR SDZ012>014-025-026-030>032-042>044-046-047-049-072-073-
076>078.
WY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ060.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...10
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