106
FXUS63 KUNR 210935
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
235 AM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
CURRENT UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW, WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER EASTERN KS, WHILE A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED
OVER MT THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS OVER MOST OF WESTERN SD, WHILE THE BLACK HILLS AND
NORTHEASTERN WY RANGE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING, THE EXCEPTION BEING SOUTH CENTRAL SD
STILL GUSTING 20-30 MPH.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS WEEK. SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS SOMEWHAT TODAY,
HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE REGION. BY SUNDAY, UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S
WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS SNOW CONTINUES TO MELT.
THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES (THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL), AND OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT
TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 934 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...10
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