391
FXUS63 KUNR 212234
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
334 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS GIVING
WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SITTING NEAR THE BLACK HILLS,
BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN SD PLAINS...AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW ARE IN
THE 30S TO MID 40S, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FROM SPEARFISH
TO PIEDMONT. HIGH AMPLITUDE THERMAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. NBM GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A COLD BIAS FROM THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS OF FRIGID TEMPS. WENT WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
NBM/NBM50PCT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH BRINGS HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY...AND THE PLAINS EAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS 20+ DEGREES WARMER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE
CWA...POSSIBLY REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT DECENT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
NEXT WAVE CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE
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