473
FXUS63 KUNR 221043
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
343 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
CURRENT UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH MILD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE MODELS
SHOW WEAK LOW OVER WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
SIT IN THE 20S TO MID 30S, WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS.
RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING STRONG WAA INTO THE AREA, AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 40S TO LOW
50S, AND EVEN WARMER ON SUNDAY. NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
COLD BIAS EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF THE
NBM AND NBM 50 PERCENTILE TO TWEAK TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY. EITHER WAY, EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
POSSIBLY LOW 60S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY, BRINGING STRONG WINDS INTO THE REGION. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES SOMEWHERE ON MONDAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES MID-WEEK, AS A BIT STRONGER WAVE CROSSES INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, THOUGH CURRENTLY MODELS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT, HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...7
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